The Daily Corporate Desk
Dhaka, 13 September 2026: The United States has emerged as Bangladesh’s second-largest trading partner, overtaking India for the first time in 16 years as trade with Washington expanded while commercial exchanges with New Delhi weakened.
Bangladesh’s merchandise trade with the US reached $12.67 billion in the 2025–26 fiscal year, compared with $10.72 billion with India, according to data from the National Board of Revenue (NBR). China remained far ahead of both, maintaining its position as Bangladesh’s largest trading partner.
The shift reflects more than a change in trade rankings. Analysts say it has been influenced by evolving Bangladesh-US trade negotiations, rising purchases from the US and growing commercial friction between Bangladesh and India.
Imports drive stronger US trade
Bangladesh’s imports from the United States increased sharply during the last fiscal year, rising 43% to $3.56 billion, from $2.49 billion a year earlier.
Exports to the US, however, grew at a much slower pace of around 4%, meaning that higher imports accounted for most of the increase in bilateral trade.
Bangladesh exported goods worth $9.11 billion to the US in FY2025–26, while imports stood at $3.56 billion, leaving the country with a trade surplus of roughly $5.55 billion. The surplus had been around $6.26 billion in the previous fiscal year.
CPD Distinguished Fellow Mustafizur Rahman said the rise in imports—particularly through government procurement—was a major factor behind the growth in overall trade with the US. He also noted that the special tariff benefit expected for Bangladesh’s apparel exports has yet to become operational.
Wheat, LNG, cotton and soybeans push imports higher
The increase in US imports was concentrated in several major commodities.
Bangladesh did not import wheat from the US in FY2024–25. In the following fiscal year, however, wheat imports jumped to $227.7 million, with the government accounting for a significant share of the purchases.
Imports of US soybeans increased from around $350 million to $620 million, while cotton imports rose from approximately $230 million to $380 million. Government purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US amounted to around $480 million.
Together, these purchases helped lift total imports from the US by 43%. As a result, Bangladesh’s overall trade with the US increased by roughly 13%, despite export growth slowing considerably from the previous year.
Trade policy reshapes the commercial equation
The rise in US imports has also taken place against the backdrop of negotiations over US tariffs on Bangladeshi goods.
The United States introduced reciprocal tariffs on Bangladesh in 2025 as part of the Trump administration’s broader effort to reduce its trade deficit. After several rounds of negotiations, the rate was set at 20% before being reduced under a bilateral trade agreement.
Under the agreement signed on 9 February, Bangladesh committed to increasing purchases from the US, including around $3.5 billion in agricultural products, approximately $15 billion worth of energy products over 15 years, 14 Boeing aircraft and military equipment.
Bangladesh also agreed to purchase 14 Boeing aircraft, with the initial agreement signed by Biman Bangladesh Airlines in April. Further discussions have also taken place over the possible purchase of additional aircraft.
The agreement also contains a commitment to provide zero reciprocal tariffs on a specified volume of textiles and garments manufactured in Bangladesh using US-origin raw materials. That mechanism, however, has not yet been implemented.
Importers cite quality and supply reliability
Major Bangladeshi importers say commercial factors are also behind the stronger flow of US products.
Mostafa Kamal, chairman of Meghna Group of Industries, said improved trade conditions, combined with competitive pricing and product quality, encouraged the group to increase imports from the US.
Amirul Haque, managing director of Seacom Group and president of the Chattogram Chamber, similarly pointed to product quality and greater supply reliability.
He said disruptions in other sourcing markets, including Ukraine, have increased concerns over port access, transportation risks and supply continuity, making the US a more attractive source for certain commodities.
India moves in the opposite direction
While trade with the US expanded, Bangladesh’s trade with India contracted.
Imports from India fell by around 7.5%, while exports declined by nearly 3% in FY2025–26. Bangladesh’s imports from India stood at approximately $8.96 billion, bringing total bilateral merchandise trade down to $10.72 billion, around 7% lower than the previous year.
Non-tariff barriers and reciprocal trade restrictions have contributed to the decline, according to economists and businesses.
In March 2025, Bangladesh decided to stop importing yarn from India through land ports. India subsequently withdrew a facility allowing Bangladeshi goods to be exported to third countries through Kolkata airport.
India also introduced restrictions on a range of Bangladeshi exports, including garments, food products, jute goods, cotton and yarn waste, plastic products and wooden furniture. Additional restrictions were imposed on some jute products in August.
The measures have affected both sides of the supply chain. Bangladesh’s garment exports to India declined, while imports of key industrial inputs such as cotton and cotton yarn also fell.
Garment exports to India dropped from around $650 million to $570 million, while cotton imports declined from $520 million to around $400 million. Imports of cotton yarn fell from approximately $1.75 billion to $1.47 billion.
The bigger picture: China remains dominant
Despite the change involving the second and third positions, China continues to dominate Bangladesh’s external trade.
Bangladesh’s merchandise trade with China reached approximately $22.96 billion in FY2025–26—about 81% higher than its trade with the United States.
The relationship remains heavily import-driven. Bangladesh imported around $22.14 billion worth of Chinese goods, while exports to China amounted to approximately $820 million.
Chinese imports include industrial raw materials, machinery and intermediate goods that support Bangladesh’s manufacturing and export industries.
Three major partners account for nearly 40% of trade
NBR data show that Bangladesh imported goods worth $73.12 billion and exported $46.26 billion in FY2025–26, placing total merchandise trade at approximately $119.38 billion.
China accounted for around 19% of the total, followed by the US with 11% and India with 9%. Together, the three countries represented roughly 39% of Bangladesh’s total merchandise trade.
However, the changing ranking does not necessarily mean the same economic impact across the three markets.
Economists point out that a significant share of imports from China and India consists of raw materials and intermediate goods used by export-oriented industries. Those imports ultimately support production for overseas markets.
For Bangladesh, the long-term value of stronger trade with the US will therefore depend not simply on the volume of imports, but also on whether promised tariff benefits for Bangladeshi exports become operational and whether higher imports increase costs or create pressure on the country’s supply and production systems.
Likewise, rebuilding trade with India will depend on the restoration of smoother cross-border commerce, lower transport costs and reliable access to industrial raw materials.
The latest trade figures suggest that Bangladesh’s commercial geography is changing—but the next phase will depend on whether higher trade volumes can translate into stronger exports, investment and productive capacity.
